Bayesian comparison of latent variable models: Conditional vs marginal likelihoods

Typical Bayesian methods for models with latent variables (or random effects) involve directly sampling the latent variables along with the model parameters. In high-level software code for model definitions (using, e.g., BUGS, JAGS, Stan), the likelihood is therefore specified as conditional on the latent variables. This can lead researchers to perform model comparisons via conditional likelihoods, where the latent variables are considered model parameters. In other settings, however, typical model comparisons involve marginal likelihoods where the latent variables are integrated out. This distinction is often overlooked despite the fact that it can have a large impact on the comparisons of interest. In this paper, we clarify and illustrate these issues, focusing on the comparison of conditional and marginal Deviance Information Criteria (DICs) and Watanabe-Akaike Information Criteria (WAICs) in psychometric modeling. The conditional/marginal distinction corresponds to whether the model should be predictive for the clusters that are in the data or for new clusters (where "clusters" typically correspond to higher-level units like people or schools). Correspondingly, we show that marginal WAIC corresponds to leave-one-cluster out (LOcO) cross-validation, whereas conditional WAIC corresponds to leave-one-unit out (LOuO). These results lead to recommendations on the general application of the criteria to models with latent variables.Comment: Manuscript in press at Psychometrika; 31 pages, 8 figure

Medical Necessity: A Higher Hurdle for Marginalized Taxpayers?

Civil rights protection for transgender people—and in particular access to affordable health care—is currently the subject of intense political scrutiny, with a hostile administration chipping away at legal protections. Among other setbacks, a federal district court enjoined regulatory guidelines that were issued in 2016 to clarify that the federal prohibition on sex discrimination in health insurance applies to discrimination on the basis of gender identity and transgender status, and the promulgating agency itself is now reconsidering the guidelines. Without explicit federal protections against discrimination by health insurers and in the face of uneven state law protections, the ability to deduct costs associated with gender transition-related health care that are not covered by insurance on one’s personal income taxes has taken on new significance for the transgender population. This article takes a new look at the 2010 decision of the United States Tax Court in O’Donnabhain v. Commissioner of Internal Revenue, in which the Court held that a transgender taxpayer could deduct certain transition-related medical expenses on her federal income tax return, but not others. This article argues that, while the O’Donnabhain decision may legitimize transition-related treatments as medically appropriate in the insurance context, the Court overreached by considering whether the costs at issue were “medically necessary” and “widely accepted” in the medical community, requirements that the federal tax code does not impose. In so doing, the decision risks imposing an unwarranted burden of proof on transgender people and potentially on other marginalized populations. This article explores the implications of the O’Donnabhain decision for transgender health care in the current political and legal climate, and explores strategies to protect health care rights for transgender people and other marginalized communities, with a focus on the medical deduction for individual federal income taxes

Longitudinal patterns in an Arkansas River Valley stream: an Application of the River Continuum Concept

The River Continuum Concept (RCC) provides the framework for studying how lotic ecosystems vary from headwater streams to large rivers. The RCC was developed in streams in eastern deciduous forests of North America, but watershed characteristics and land uses differ across ecoregions, presenting unique opportunities to study how predictions of the RCC may differ across regions. Additionally, RCC predictions may vary due to the influence of fishes, but few studies have used fish taxa as a metric for evaluating predictions of the RCC. Our goal was to determine if RCC predictions for stream orders 1 through 5 were supported by primary producer, macroinvertebrate, and fish communities in Cadron Creek of the Arkansas River Valley. We sampled chlorophyll a, macroinvertebrates, and fishes at five stream reaches across a gradient of watershed size. Contrary to RCC predictions, chlorophyll a did not increase in concentration with catchment size. As the RCC predicts, fish and macroinvertebrate diversity increased with catchment size. Shredding and collecting macroinvertebrate taxa supported RCC predictions, respectively decreasing and increasing in composition as catchment area increased. Herbivorous and predaceous fish did not follow RCC predictions; however, surface-water column feeding fish were abundant at all sites as predicted. We hypothesize some predictions of the RCC were not supported in headwater reaches of this system due to regional differences in watershed characteristics and altered resource availability due to land use surrounding sampling sites

Coinductive subtyping for abstract compilation of object-oriented languages into Horn formulas

In recent work we have shown how it is possible to define very precise type systems for object-oriented languages by abstractly compiling a program into a Horn formula f. Then type inference amounts to resolving a certain goal w.r.t. the coinductive (that is, the greatest) Herbrand model of f. Type systems defined in this way are idealized, since in the most interesting instantiations both the terms of the coinductive Herbrand universe and goal derivations cannot be finitely represented. However, sound and quite expressive approximations can be implemented by considering only regular terms and derivations. In doing so, it is essential to introduce a proper subtyping relation formalizing the notion of approximation between types. In this paper we study a subtyping relation on coinductive terms built on union and object type constructors. We define an interpretation of types as set of values induced by a quite intuitive relation of membership of values to types, and prove that the definition of subtyping is sound w.r.t. subset inclusion between type interpretations. The proof of soundness has allowed us to simplify the notion of contractive derivation and to discover that the previously given definition of subtyping did not cover all possible representations of the empty type

Understanding the relationship between alcohol outlet density and life expectancy in Baltimore City: The role of community violence and community disadvantage

This research investigated the relationship between alcohol outlet density (AOD) and life expectancy, as mediated by community violence and community disadvantage. We used linear regression models to assess bivariate and multivariate relationships. There was a negative bivariate association between liquor store density and average life expectancy (β = â 7.3370, p < 0.001). This relationship was partially attenuated when controlling for community disadvantage and fully attenuated when controlling for community violence. Bars/taverns (i.e., onâ premise) were not associated with average life expectancy (β = â 0.589, p = 0.220). Liquor store density is associated with higher levels of community disadvantage and higher rates of violence, both of which are associated with lower life expectancies. Future research, potential intervention, and current related policies are discussed.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146620/1/jcop22099_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146620/2/jcop22099.pd

Measuring Cognitive Reflection without Maths: Development and Validation fo the Verbal Cognitive Reflection Test

The Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) became popular for its impressive power to predict how well people reason and make decisions. Despite the popularity of the CRT, a major issue complicates its interpretation: the numerical nature of the CRT confounds reflection ability with mathematical ability. We have addressed this issue by developing the Verbal CRT (CRT-V), a novel 10-item measure of cognitive reflection (https://osf.io/xehbv/), using non-mathematical problems with good statistical and psychometric properties and with low familiarity. First, we selected suitable items with relatively low familiarity and optimal difficulty as identified in two different populations (Studies 1 and 2) and with high content validity as judged by an expert panel (Study 3). Second, we demonstrated good criterion and construct validity for the test in different populations with a wide range of variables (Studies 4-6, 8) and a good internal consistency and test-retest reliability (Study 7). The Verbal CRT was less associated with math anxiety, objective and subjective numeracy than the original CRT and it was test equivalent across gender, age groups and administration setting. In contrast with the original CRT (Hedge’s g = 0.29, 95% CI[0.17, 0.40]), the Verbal CRT showed no gender differences (Hedge’s g = -0.06, 95% CI[-0.18, 0.06]). The Verbal CRT can complement existing, numerical, tests of cognitive reflection

Effects of atomoxetine on growth in children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder following up to five years of treatment.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the effects on growth of long-term pharmacological treatment for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), we present findings from an ongoing 5-year study of the efficacy and safety of treatment with atomoxetine. METHODS: North American patients, 6-17 years old at study entry (N = 1,312) and with Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders,4th edition (DSM-IV) ADHD, were studied under open-label atomoxetine treatment. Sixty-one were studied up to 5 years. RESULTS: After 1 month\u27s treatment, patients weighed less than expected from their starting percentiles relative to population norms, with a maximum shortfall at 15 months and a return to expected weight by 36 months. Patients were slightly shorter than expected after 12 months, reaching a maximum shortfall at 18 months and returning to expected height by 24 months. Patients in the top quartile for body mass index (BMI) or weight at baseline, and those in the third quartile for height, showed 5-year decreases from expected values. Those below median height at baseline showed increases relative to expected values. CONCLUSIONS: These interim results indicate that continuous atomoxetine treatment for up to 5 years has little or no long-term effect on juvenile growth and final stature for most patients, although persistent decreases from expected may occur in some patients who are larger than average before treatment

Design and validation of a three-instrument toolkit for the assessment of competence in electrocardiogram rhythm recognition

Background: Rapid and accurate interpretation of cardiac arrhythmias by nurses has been linked with safe practice and positive patient outcomes. Although training in electrocardiogram (ECG) rhythm recognition is part of most undergraduate nursing programmes, research continues to suggest that nurses and nursing students lack competence in recognising cardiac rhythms. In order to promote patient safety, nursing educators must develop valid and reliable assessment tools that allow the rigorous assessment of this competence before nursing students are allowed to practise without supervision. Aim: To develop and psychometrically evaluate a toolkit to holistically assess competence in ECG rhythm recognition. Methods: Following a convenience sampling technique, 293 nursing students from a nursing faculty in a Spanish university were recruited for the study. The following three instruments were developed and psychometrically tested: a knowledge assessment tool (ECG-KAT), a skills assessment tool (ECG-SAT) and a self-efficacy assessment tool (ECG-SES). Reliability and validity (content, criterion and construct) of these tools were meticulously examined. Results: A high Cronbach’s alpha coefficient demonstrated the excellent reliability of the instruments (ECG-KAT=0.89; ECG-SAT=0.93; ECG-SES=0.98). An excellent context validity index (S-CVI/Ave>0.94) and very good criterion validity were evidenced for all the tools. Regarding construct validity, principal component analysis revealed that all items comprising the instruments contributed to measure knowledge, skills or self-efficacy in ECG rhythm recognition. Moreover, known-groups analysis showed the tools’ ability to detect expected differences in competence between groups with different training experiences. Conclusion: The three-instrument toolkit developed showed excellent psychometric properties for measuring competence in ECG rhythm recognition